{
  "query": "UK construction market price trends May 2026 inflation steel sector outlook",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "UK construction output in 2026 is projected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In headline terms, depending on which analysis is being followed, 2026 output is expected to be up by anywhere between 3.5% and 4.5% when compared with 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "As of May 2026, the price for Northern European Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) steel is approximately €700 per tonne.",
      "verbatim_quote": "HRC (N. Europe, ex-works) | ~€700/t | +€50–80/t | 4.3 Mt import reduction; quota ~25% of recent flat import volumes",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK steel safeguard is scheduled to expire on June 30, 2026, and will be replaced by a new trade defense mechanism with lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In the UK, the current steel safeguard also expires on 30 June 2026, to be replaced by a new trade defence mechanism from 1 July 2026 with substantially lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff, mirroring the EU approach.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction output price inflation was recorded at 2.7% year-on-year in the latest data leading into 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Output price inflation, running at 2.7% y/y in September 2025 (the latest available ONS data13 had, for the first time in several years, exceeded input price inflation",
      "source_url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The Bank of England base rate is forecast to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "As a result, Oxford Economics now expects the base rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices for CRC/metallic coated products in May 2026 are between €830 and €850 per tonne.",
      "verbatim_quote": "CRC / metallic coated | ~€830–850/t | +€50–80/t | Tracks HRC; CBAM adds further cost pressure on non-EU origins",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term for 2026 due to soft demand and supply chain competition.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains.",
      "source_url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] UK construction output in 2026 is projected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025. (source: https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry)\n- [HIGH] As of May 2026, the price for Northern European Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) steel is approximately €700 per tonne. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [HIGH] The UK steel safeguard is scheduled to expire on June 30, 2026, and will be replaced by a new trade defense mechanism with lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [HIGH] Construction output price inflation was recorded at 2.7% year-on-year in the latest data leading into 2026. (source: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] The Bank of England base rate is forecast to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. (source: https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html)\n- [HIGH] Steel prices for CRC/metallic coated products in May 2026 are between €830 and €850 per tonne. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [HIGH] Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term for 2026 due to soft demand and supply chain competition. (source: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026)"
}