{
  "query": "UK construction and steel industry cost variance benchmarks 2024-2026 NEC contract norms",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Total UK construction output is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Total UK construction output is now forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 – a slight downward revision compared with the forecast at the start of the year.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steelwork cost indices are forecast to rise from 145.8 in Q1 2024 to 162.4 by Q4 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Forecast Quarter 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 120.0 131.2 145.4 145.8 150.5 156.9 164.5 ... 4 127.5 142.3 145.6 149.3 155.0 162.4 170.4",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK construction price index in early 2025 reached 151.8 points, compared to 110.6 in 2020.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In addition, in absolute terms, the early 2025 “all work” construction price index reading of 151.8 points compares very unfavourably with the 2020-value of 110.6 points, highlighting a persistent rise in building costs since Covid2 .",
      "source_url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-december-2025",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Industrial output in the UK contracted by 4.7% in 2024, with growth of 1.0% forecast for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Total industrial output contracted by 4.7% in 2024, and growth in factories in 2025 is forecast to drive overall sector growth of 1.0%. Growth of 2.6% is expected in 2026 as activity in both factories and warehouses accelerates.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK Government effectively mandates the use of NEC contracts for publicly funded construction projects.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The UK Government’s Construction Playbook and Infrastructure and Projects Authority now effectively mandate NEC for publicly funded construction projects.",
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/@nihanthreddy65/why-nec-contracts-are-revolutionizing-uk-construction-and-what-you-need-to-know-38de679222c8",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Effective tariff rates for construction goods are projected to reach 25% to 30% in 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The effective tariff rate for construction goods climbed to a 40-year high of 25% to 30% in 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/engineering-and-construction/engineering-and-construction-industry-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Total UK construction output is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. (source: https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf)\n- [HIGH] Steelwork cost indices are forecast to rise from 145.8 in Q1 2024 to 162.4 by Q4 2026. (source: https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf)\n- [HIGH] The UK construction price index in early 2025 reached 151.8 points, compared to 110.6 in 2020. (source: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-december-2025)\n- [MEDIUM] Industrial output in the UK contracted by 4.7% in 2024, with growth of 1.0% forecast for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026. (source: https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/e/e0/Costing_Steelwork-32.pdf)\n- [MEDIUM] The UK Government effectively mandates the use of NEC contracts for publicly funded construction projects. (source: https://medium.com/@nihanthreddy65/why-nec-contracts-are-revolutionizing-uk-construction-and-what-you-need-to-know-38de679222c8)\n- [MEDIUM] Effective tariff rates for construction goods are projected to reach 25% to 30% in 2025. (source: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/engineering-and-construction/engineering-and-construction-industry-outlook.html)"
}