{
  "query": "UK construction market cost trends May 2026 inflation labor rates steel prices",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Building costs are projected to increase by 14% to 15% over the five-year period starting in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Labour remains the primary driver of project costs in 2026, with specific shortages in specialist trades like facade works and sprinkler installation.",
      "verbatim_quote": "On the input costs side, labour remains the primary driver of project costs. Skills shortages continue to prevail, with the TPI panel reporting that while labour availability is generally sufficient, there are particular issues in specialist trades, including sprinkler installation and facade works.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices are projected to rise through 2030 and remain sensitive to global energy market fluctuations.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Material costs, particularly for insulation, timber, and steel, are projected to rise further through to 2030, prompting firms to rethink procurement strategies and build greater resilience into project budgets.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Employment costs are rising due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage increases from the Autumn Budget.",
      "verbatim_quote": "rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget – higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, will undoubtedly add pressure to already tight margins.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction output in 2026 is expected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In headline terms, depending on which analysis is being followed, 2026 output is expected to be up by anywhere between 3.5% and 4.5% when compared with 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel and metal product prices are highly sensitive to energy market volatility caused by geopolitical conflicts.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Steel manufacturing requires massive amounts of energy. Consequently, prices for steel and metal products remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy markets and raw material costs.",
      "source_url": "https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Building costs are projected to increase by 14% to 15% over the five-year period starting in 2026. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast)\n- [HIGH] Labour remains the primary driver of project costs in 2026, with specific shortages in specialist trades like facade works and sprinkler installation. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast)\n- [HIGH] Steel prices are projected to rise through 2030 and remain sensitive to global energy market fluctuations. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026)\n- [HIGH] Employment costs are rising due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage increases from the Autumn Budget. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] Construction output in 2026 is expected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025. (source: https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry)\n- [HIGH] Steel and metal product prices are highly sensitive to energy market volatility caused by geopolitical conflicts. (source: https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026)"
}