{
  "query": "UK construction material price index 2026 2027 trend structural steel",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Fabricated structural steel prices increased by 8.2% in the 12 months leading to March 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Fabricated structural steel [percentage change] 8.2",
      "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-april-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-april-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The construction material price index for structural steelwork is forecast to reach 162.2 by the fourth quarter of 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "COSTING STEELWORK Forecast Quarter [...] 2026 [...] 4 [index] 162.2",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/f/fb/Costing_Steelwork-31.pdf",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The total UK construction materials price index is forecast to reach 152 in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Total (2026) 152 Index",
      "source_url": "https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/bed/construction-materials-price-index/44255/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "A substantive upturn in steel prices is expected after 2026, driven by new trade defense mechanisms and the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2027.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Steelonthenet.com expects little meaningful price recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn [...] The UK's own CBAM is not expected until 2027, leaving a brief window of reduced regulatory protection in H1 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "New UK trade regulations effective July 2026 will introduce lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff on steel.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In the UK, the current steel safeguard also expires on 30 June 2026, to be replaced by a new trade defence mechanism from 1 July 2026 with substantially lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK construction sector is expected to see growth return in 2026 and 2027 following a challenging 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "After a challenging 2025, industry analysts are expecting growth to return in 2026 and 2027.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Fabricated structural steel prices increased by 8.2% in the 12 months leading to March 2026. (source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-april-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-april-2026)\n- [HIGH] The construction material price index for structural steelwork is forecast to reach 162.2 by the fourth quarter of 2026. (source: https://www.steelconstruction.info/images/f/fb/Costing_Steelwork-31.pdf)\n- [HIGH] The total UK construction materials price index is forecast to reach 152 in 2026. (source: https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/bed/construction-materials-price-index/44255/)\n- [HIGH] A substantive upturn in steel prices is expected after 2026, driven by new trade defense mechanisms and the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2027. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [MEDIUM] New UK trade regulations effective July 2026 will introduce lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff on steel. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [MEDIUM] The UK construction sector is expected to see growth return in 2026 and 2027 following a challenging 2025. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)"
}