{
  "query": "UK construction cost inflation forecast 2026 2027 steel sector",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "UK structural steel prices are projected to rise from approximately €780 per tonne to over €1,000 per tonne as new tariffs and carbon pricing take effect.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The research shows that UK hot-rolled structural steel sections are expected to rise from circa €780 per tonne to over €1,000 per tonne once a new 50% import tariff and carbon pricing are fully reflected",
      "source_url": "https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK is expected to become the most expensive market in Europe for structural steel by late 2026, surpassing prices in Germany and France.",
      "verbatim_quote": "projections suggest that the UK will overtake core EU markets in structural steel pricing by late 2026, overtaking Germany and France where prices typically range around €850 to €900 per tonne.",
      "source_url": "https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices are expected to see a substantive upturn in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallize, with a cycle peak anticipated in 2028.",
      "verbatim_quote": "price recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn concentrated in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallise, and the next cycle peak now more plausibly expected in 2028.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The combination of carbon border adjustments (CBAM) and new safeguards is expected to make the second half of 2026 and 2027 a period of higher domestic steel prices.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The combined effect of CBAM and the new safeguard — described by S&P Global as removing \"the safety valve of cheap third-country supply that previously capped European prices\" — is likely to make H2 2026 and 2027 meaningfully more supportive for European domestic steel prices than H1 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "A prolonged conflict scenario could lead to a second wave of building materials inflation and compress housing market activity into 2027.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Sustained energy price elevation would transmit into a second wave of building materials inflation... compressing housing market activity into 2027 and jeopardising the financial viability of a growing share of development schemes.",
      "source_url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction industry analysts expect growth to return to the UK sector in 2026 and 2027 following a difficult 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "After a challenging 2025, industry analysts are expecting growth to return in 2026 and 2027.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] UK structural steel prices are projected to rise from approximately €780 per tonne to over €1,000 per tonne as new tariffs and carbon pricing take effect. (source: https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/)\n- [HIGH] The UK is expected to become the most expensive market in Europe for structural steel by late 2026, surpassing prices in Germany and France. (source: https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/)\n- [HIGH] Steel prices are expected to see a substantive upturn in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallize, with a cycle peak anticipated in 2028. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [HIGH] The combination of carbon border adjustments (CBAM) and new safeguards is expected to make the second half of 2026 and 2027 a period of higher domestic steel prices. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [MEDIUM] A prolonged conflict scenario could lead to a second wave of building materials inflation and compress housing market activity into 2027. (source: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] Construction industry analysts expect growth to return to the UK sector in 2026 and 2027 following a difficult 2025. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)"
}