{
  "query": "current UK construction cost inflation trends May 2026 steel industry",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices in the UK are predicted to rise by £80 per tonne in the short term, with increases exceeding £200 per tonne later in 2026 due to protective trade measures.",
      "verbatim_quote": "All Steels predicts that steel prices in the EU and UK could rise to £80 per tonne (€92.05) in the short term, and later in 2026, the increase will exceed £200/ton (€230.1) after the full implementation of protective measures.",
      "source_url": "https://gmk.center/en/news/new-tariffs-and-cbam-will-push-up-steel-prices-in-the-eu-and-the-uk-forecast/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "As of May 2026, the price for Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) in Northern Europe is approximately €700/t, with an estimated uplift of €50–80/t expected in the second half of 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "| HRC (N. Europe, ex-works) | ~€700/t | +€50–80/t | 4.3 Mt import reduction; quota ~25% of recent flat import volumes |",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK steel safeguard is set to expire on June 30, 2026, and will be replaced by a new trade defense mechanism on July 1, 2026, featuring lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In the UK, the current steel safeguard also expires on 30 June 2026, to be replaced by a new trade defence mechanism from 1 July 2026 with substantially lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff, mirroring the EU approach.",
      "source_url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices remain highly sensitive to global energy market volatility and raw material costs, partly driven by geopolitical conflicts.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Consequently, prices for steel and metal products remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy markets and raw material costs.",
      "source_url": "https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOorvusQTqilB3Kv3WFYwvKHZiiOh1vn9Q4vsEWP9xqhVjeQgLIjh",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction labor costs are projected to increase by approximately 3.95% in 2026 under a new three-year agreement.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Looking ahead, a new three-year agreement sets out further hikes: approximately 3.95% in 2026, 4.6% in 2027, and around 4.85% in 2028",
      "source_url": "https://julianhobbs.com/blog/construction-cost-inflation-in-uk/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Steel prices in the UK are predicted to rise by £80 per tonne in the short term, with increases exceeding £200 per tonne later in 2026 due to protective trade measures. (source: https://gmk.center/en/news/new-tariffs-and-cbam-will-push-up-steel-prices-in-the-eu-and-the-uk-forecast/)\n- [HIGH] As of May 2026, the price for Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) in Northern Europe is approximately €700/t, with an estimated uplift of €50–80/t expected in the second half of 2026. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [HIGH] The UK steel safeguard is set to expire on June 30, 2026, and will be replaced by a new trade defense mechanism on July 1, 2026, featuring lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff. (source: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html)\n- [MEDIUM] Steel prices remain highly sensitive to global energy market volatility and raw material costs, partly driven by geopolitical conflicts. (source: https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOorvusQTqilB3Kv3WFYwvKHZiiOh1vn9Q4vsEWP9xqhVjeQgLIjh)\n- [MEDIUM] Construction labor costs are projected to increase by approximately 3.95% in 2026 under a new three-year agreement. (source: https://julianhobbs.com/blog/construction-cost-inflation-in-uk/)"
}