{
  "query": "UK construction cost inflation 2026 forecast steel sector industry benchmarks",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "The overall construction material price index for all work increased by 2.1% in February 2026 compared with February 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "According to the UK Government’s latest Building Materials and Components Statistics (March 2026), the overall construction material price index for all work increased by 2.1% in February 2026 compared with February 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://hamiltonsteelbuildings.com/construction-material-price-rises-in-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% over the five-year period starting from 1Q2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Steel prices in 2026 remain highly sensitive to global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical conflicts.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Consequently, prices for steel and metal products remain highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy markets and raw material costs. ... Geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, have introduced volatility into global energy markets. This volatility directly affects the cost of energy-intensive manufacturing processes, driving up the price of raw materials linked to steel production",
      "source_url": "https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOopqA9BTIKIC-Gisq9EbKBwzgg_bBD9UJazhBgVbieqqN0lzyQbX",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction material prices for 'All Work' rose by 2.0% in the 12 months leading to January 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In the 12 months to January 2026, construction material prices for \"All Work\" rose by 2.0%.",
      "source_url": "https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOopqA9BTIKIC-Gisq9EbKBwzgg_bBD9UJazhBgVbieqqN0lzyQbX",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The OECD raised its 2026 UK inflation projection to 4.0% due to energy shocks affecting sectors like steel.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The OECD moved simultaneously, cutting its UK growth forecast from 1.2% to 0.7% while raising its inflation projection from 2.5% to 4.0%.",
      "source_url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Industry forecasts suggest modest construction growth in 2026, leading to cautious supply chain pricing.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Industry forecasts from the Construction Products Association suggest UK construction growth in 2026 is modest, meaning supply chains remain cautious and pricing can remain volatile.",
      "source_url": "https://hamiltonsteelbuildings.com/construction-material-price-rises-in-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] The overall construction material price index for all work increased by 2.1% in February 2026 compared with February 2025. (source: https://hamiltonsteelbuildings.com/construction-material-price-rises-in-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% over the five-year period starting from 1Q2026. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/)\n- [HIGH] Steel prices in 2026 remain highly sensitive to global energy market fluctuations and geopolitical conflicts. (source: https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOopqA9BTIKIC-Gisq9EbKBwzgg_bBD9UJazhBgVbieqqN0lzyQbX)\n- [HIGH] Construction material prices for 'All Work' rose by 2.0% in the 12 months leading to January 2026. (source: https://www.frank-key.co.uk/material-price-inflation-2026?srsltid=AfmBOopqA9BTIKIC-Gisq9EbKBwzgg_bBD9UJazhBgVbieqqN0lzyQbX)\n- [MEDIUM] The OECD raised its 2026 UK inflation projection to 4.0% due to energy shocks affecting sectors like steel. (source: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] Industry forecasts suggest modest construction growth in 2026, leading to cautious supply chain pricing. (source: https://hamiltonsteelbuildings.com/construction-material-price-rises-in-2026/)"
}