{
  "query": "UK construction cost trends and steel sector market outlook May 2026",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "UK construction output in 2026 is projected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In headline terms, depending on which analysis is being followed, 2026 output is expected to be up by anywhere between 3.5% and 4.5% when compared with 2025.",
      "source_url": "https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "UK steel prices in 2026 are expected to be driven by protectionist policies, with total price increases of £150-£200/mt anticipated for the year.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The report concludes that 2026 pricing will be driven more by protectionist policy than by demand fundamentals. All Steels expects total price increases of £150-£200/mt this year",
      "source_url": "https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Significant changes to UK steel safeguard measures are speculated for July 1, 2026, including a potential 50% cut in quotas and a doubling of out-of-quota duties.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Industry speculation suggests that from July 1, 2026, UK safeguard quotas could be cut by up to 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise from 25 percent to 50 percent.",
      "source_url": "https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% over the five-year period starting from 1Q2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget, including higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, are expected to pressure construction margins in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget – higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, will undoubtedly add pressure to already tight margins.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK steel market is facing a structural shift as safeguard measures expire in June 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "the UK steel market is entering a major structural shift as existing safeguard measures approach expiry in June 2026",
      "source_url": "https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The commercial office sector in 2026 will see continued growth in the adaptive re-use of existing buildings and structural extensions.",
      "verbatim_quote": "adaptive re-use of existing building stock, via structural alterations to the existing frame, along with vertical and horizontal extensions, is a prominent feature of the commercial office sector, and this will continue to grow in 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] UK construction output in 2026 is projected to grow by 3.5% to 4.5% compared to 2025. (source: https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/analysis/why-2026-better-days-uk-construction-industry)\n- [HIGH] UK steel prices in 2026 are expected to be driven by protectionist policies, with total price increases of £150-£200/mt anticipated for the year. (source: https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/)\n- [HIGH] Significant changes to UK steel safeguard measures are speculated for July 1, 2026, including a potential 50% cut in quotas and a doubling of out-of-quota duties. (source: https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/)\n- [HIGH] Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% over the five-year period starting from 1Q2026. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/)\n- [MEDIUM] Rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget, including higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, are expected to pressure construction margins in 2026. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)\n- [HIGH] The UK steel market is facing a structural shift as safeguard measures expire in June 2026. (source: https://eurometal.net/uk-steel-price-outlook-firm-as-safeguard-reform-and-cbam-reshape-market/)\n- [MEDIUM] The commercial office sector in 2026 will see continued growth in the adaptive re-use of existing buildings and structural extensions. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)"
}