{
  "query": "current UK construction inflation 2026 forecast steel sector budget trends",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "The UK construction industry is projected to grow by 2.8% to 4.5% in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The U.K. construction industry is entering a period of cautious optimism with projected growth of 2.8% to 4.5% in 2026",
      "source_url": "https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Concrete reinforcing bars (steel) saw a price decrease of 7.2% in the 12 months leading to February 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Concrete reinforcing bars (steel) -7.2",
      "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-march-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-march-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Material costs for steel are projected to continue rising through to 2030, affecting project budgets.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Material costs, particularly for insulation, timber, and steel, are projected to rise further through to 2030, prompting firms to rethink procurement strategies and build greater resilience into project budgets.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Labour costs are identified as the primary driver of inflation for construction projects in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Labour costs remain the main inflation driver on many projects, though material pricing is stabilising with selective pressure on specialist products.",
      "source_url": "https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The Autumn Budget has introduced budget pressures via increased National Insurance contributions and minimum wage requirements.",
      "verbatim_quote": "rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget – higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, will undoubtedly add pressure to already tight margins.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Commercial schemes are increasingly specifying lower upfront embodied carbon Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The specification of lower upfront embodied carbon EAF steel continues to be a strategy on commercial schemes.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Infrastructure is expected to be the primary growth driver in 2026, with output increasing by 3.9% to 4.4%.",
      "verbatim_quote": "identifies infrastructure as the primary growth driver, with output expected to increase by 3.9% to 4.4%.",
      "source_url": "https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] The UK construction industry is projected to grow by 2.8% to 4.5% in 2026. (source: https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery)\n- [HIGH] Concrete reinforcing bars (steel) saw a price decrease of 7.2% in the 12 months leading to February 2026. (source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-march-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-march-2026)\n- [HIGH] Material costs for steel are projected to continue rising through to 2030, affecting project budgets. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Labour costs are identified as the primary driver of inflation for construction projects in 2026. (source: https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery)\n- [MEDIUM] The Autumn Budget has introduced budget pressures via increased National Insurance contributions and minimum wage requirements. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)\n- [MEDIUM] Commercial schemes are increasingly specifying lower upfront embodied carbon Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)\n- [MEDIUM] Infrastructure is expected to be the primary growth driver in 2026, with output increasing by 3.9% to 4.4%. (source: https://www.rooferscoffeeshop.com/post/uk-construction-industry-poised-for-3-45-growth-in-2026-but-critical-workforce-shortage-threatens-recovery)"
}