{
  "query": "UK construction industry inflation and cost trends May 2026 forecast steel sector",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Material costs for steel are projected to increase through to 2030.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Material costs, particularly for insulation, timber, and steel, are projected to rise further through to 2030, prompting firms to rethink procurement strategies and build greater resilience into project budgets.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% between 1Q2026 and 1Q2031.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term (Spring 2026) due to soft demand.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains.",
      "source_url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Rising energy prices in early 2026 risk sustaining inflationary pressures in the construction sector.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Higher energy prices risk sustaining inflationary pressures and delaying any easing in monetary policy, which is critical for interest-sensitive sectors like housing.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK base interest rate is expected to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026, aiding project viability.",
      "verbatim_quote": "As a result, Oxford Economics now expects the base rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The use of lower carbon EAF steel is becoming a strategy for commercial construction schemes in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The specification of lower upfront embodied carbon EAF steel continues to be a strategy on commercial schemes.",
      "source_url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Material costs for steel are projected to increase through to 2030. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% and tender prices by 15% between 1Q2026 and 1Q2031. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/)\n- [HIGH] Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term (Spring 2026) due to soft demand. (source: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] Rising energy prices in early 2026 risk sustaining inflationary pressures in the construction sector. (source: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/)\n- [MEDIUM] The UK base interest rate is expected to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026, aiding project viability. (source: https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html)\n- [MEDIUM] The use of lower carbon EAF steel is becoming a strategy for commercial construction schemes in 2026. (source: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/)"
}