{
  "query": "UK construction market trends May 2026 inflation steel prices infrastructure outlook",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "Structural steel prices in the UK are forecast to remain stable in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Structural Steel: Stable",
      "source_url": "https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Infrastructure output in the UK is projected to rise by 4.4% in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The Construction Products Association (CPA) forecasts that infrastructure output will rise by 4.4% in 2026.",
      "source_url": "https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "UK construction output is projected to grow by 1.6% in real terms, supported by housing and commercial investment.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The UK’s construction output is projected to have grown by 1.6% in real terms, supported by renewed investment in housing and commercial sectors as interest rates ease.",
      "source_url": "https://insights.linesight.com/cmi-2026-outlook/industry-trends-and-commodities-outlook-for-2026-europe/construction-industry",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Merchant bars and rebar are expected to see price increases of 1% to 3% in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Merchant Bars: +1% to +3% ... Rebar: +1% to +3%",
      "source_url": "https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term, though rising commodity and energy prices could create renewed pressure.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens.",
      "source_url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The infrastructure sector is acting as an anchor for the industry, with energy and water sub-sectors showing significant vigor.",
      "verbatim_quote": "infrastructure continues to justify its reputation as the sector's anchor. ... Energy and water sub-sectors show particular vigour, registering net balances of +29% and +18% respectively in RICS data.",
      "source_url": "https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "H1 2026 is expected to be a challenging period for the sector due to input cost shocks and geopolitical conflict.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Our base case is that H1 2026 will represent the most challenging period for the sector since the immediate post-Autumn Budget slump of late 2024. The input cost shock is working through fixed-price contract portfolios",
      "source_url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] Structural steel prices in the UK are forecast to remain stable in 2026. (source: https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Infrastructure output in the UK is projected to rise by 4.4% in 2026. (source: https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html)\n- [HIGH] UK construction output is projected to grow by 1.6% in real terms, supported by housing and commercial investment. (source: https://insights.linesight.com/cmi-2026-outlook/industry-trends-and-commodities-outlook-for-2026-europe/construction-industry)\n- [HIGH] Merchant bars and rebar are expected to see price increases of 1% to 3% in 2026. (source: https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term, though rising commodity and energy prices could create renewed pressure. (source: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] The infrastructure sector is acting as an anchor for the industry, with energy and water sub-sectors showing significant vigor. (source: https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html)\n- [MEDIUM] H1 2026 is expected to be a challenging period for the sector due to input cost shocks and geopolitical conflict. (source: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026)"
}