{
  "query": "UK construction inflation 2024-2026 steel industry project budget variance trends",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": "In 2024, UK steel prices for structural steel remained stable or saw increases up to 3%, while merchant bars rose by 4% to 7%.",
      "verbatim_quote": "In 2024, UK steel prices saw moderate increases as energy costs settled and imports from Turkey and Asia increased competitiveness. Overall annual movement: Merchant Bars: +4% to +7% ... Structural Steel: Stable to +3%",
      "source_url": "https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Structural steel prices in the UK are forecast to remain stable or increase by up to 4% in 2025.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Price Outlook for 2025 ... Structural Steel: Stable to +4%",
      "source_url": "https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "UK construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term as of early 2026, though rising commodity prices and labor shortages pose risks.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens.",
      "source_url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026",
      "relevance": "high"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The UK steel market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.01% from 2026 to 2034.",
      "verbatim_quote": "The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.01% from 2026-2034, due to ongoing infrastructural modernization, electric vehicle production growth, and the increasing application of high strength and sustainable steel grades in various industrial uses.",
      "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/united-kingdom-steel-industry-report-090900846.html",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Industrial project starts in the UK are forecast to decline by 12% in 2024 before recovering with 3% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026.",
      "verbatim_quote": "INDUSTRIAL -12% 2024 +3% 2025 +4% 2026 ... A further 12% decline in industrial starts is expected for 2024.",
      "source_url": "https://www.glenigan.com/wp-content/uploads/Glenigan-Construction-Industry-Forecast-June_2024_2026.pdf",
      "relevance": "medium"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Major UK construction projects face significant expected costs, such as the Heathrow Airport Expansion at approximately £18bn and the Sellafield Plutonium Recycling Plant at approximately £15bn.",
      "verbatim_quote": "Major Construction Projects NOT EXHAUSTIVE Project Expected Cost Heathrow Airport Expansion ~£18bn Sellafield Plutonium Recycling Plant ~£15bn",
      "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69afe20f6827004e30b8a5b4/uk-steel-strategy-demand-assessment-2025-part-one-long-term-steel-demand-outlook.pdf",
      "relevance": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "market_context": "- [HIGH] In 2024, UK steel prices for structural steel remained stable or saw increases up to 3%, while merchant bars rose by 4% to 7%. (source: https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/)\n- [HIGH] Structural steel prices in the UK are forecast to remain stable or increase by up to 4% in 2025. (source: https://coremetsteel.com/news-insights/uk-steel-price-forecast-2025-2026/)\n- [HIGH] UK construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term as of early 2026, though rising commodity prices and labor shortages pose risks. (source: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026)\n- [MEDIUM] The UK steel market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.01% from 2026 to 2034. (source: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/united-kingdom-steel-industry-report-090900846.html)\n- [MEDIUM] Industrial project starts in the UK are forecast to decline by 12% in 2024 before recovering with 3% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026. (source: https://www.glenigan.com/wp-content/uploads/Glenigan-Construction-Industry-Forecast-June_2024_2026.pdf)\n- [MEDIUM] Major UK construction projects face significant expected costs, such as the Heathrow Airport Expansion at approximately £18bn and the Sellafield Plutonium Recycling Plant at approximately £15bn. (source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69afe20f6827004e30b8a5b4/uk-steel-strategy-demand-assessment-2025-part-one-long-term-steel-demand-outlook.pdf)"
}