{
  "query": "UK construction cost inflation forecast 2026 2027 steel sector",
  "raw_results": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026",
      "title": "UK Construction Sector Report: April 2026 - Tokio Marine HCC",
      "content": "Scenario A:Prolonged Conflict (Extended Squeeze) If the conflict is protracted, the risks are more severe. Sustained energy price elevation would transmit into a second wave of building materials inflation, likely triggering a new insolvency cycle concentrated among fixed-price contractors in specialist trades. The interest rate path would remain inverted from market expectations at the start of the year, compressing housing market activity into 2027 and jeopardising the financial viability of a growing share of development schemes. The CPA’s revised 1.7% output forecast would likely prove optimistic. Credit risk management in construction lending and trade credit insurance would need to adjust to a higher and more persistent risk environment. [...] One of the sector’s few genuine improvements heading into\n2026 was the normalisation of input cost inflation. Construction\nmaterial prices had dipped into mild deflation in mid-2023\nfollowing the 2022 peak. Output price inflation, running at 2.7%\ny/y in September 2025 (the latest available ONS data13 had,\nfor the first time in several years, exceeded input price inflation,\nproviding some relief to margins that had been compressed for\nyears. At the 2022 peak, input price inflation reached around\n25% y/y while output price inflation peaked at 12% - a gap of\n13 percentage points that eroded sector balance sheets over\nan extended period and from which many firms had not fully\nrecovered before the current shock arrived. That supportive\ndynamic is now at serious risk of reversal [...] As set out in the Channel 1 transmission analysis above, this cost\nenvironment is a direct amplifier of credit risk for firms operating\non fixed-price contracts.\n\nIn absolute terms, the context is sobering. The ‘all work’\nconstruction price index stood at approximately 151.8 in early\n2025, 37.3% above its 2020 level of 110.6. A second inflationary\nepisode, even a less severe one than 2022, risks locking in a\nstructurally higher cost base that prices out marginal projects and\nfurther compresses already thin margins.\n\nUK Construction Output by Type, £bn (2019 prices, seasonally adjusted)\n\nUK Construction Output by Type, £bn (2019 prices, seasonally adjusted)",
      "score": 0.9999132,
      "raw_content": null
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026",
      "title": "UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis",
      "content": "What is the forecast for UK construction inflation?\n\n  Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens.\n How will building costs change in 2026? [...] The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View examines the forces shaping the UK construction market, from shifts in sector performance and regional activity to emerging cost pressures and long-term infrastructure investment.\n\n## UK construction industry trends, growth, and inflation insights\n\nThe Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View provides a data-driven perspective on the forces shaping the UK construction sector. The report combines market research and analysis, sector insights, and forward-looking forecasts to help industry leaders navigate an uncertain recovery.\n\nConstruction growth and sector performance analysis—how residential, commercial, infrastructure, and public sectors are diverging in a two-speed recovery. [...] Is construction growth returning in the UK?\n\n  Growth is expected to return gradually as project pipelines begin to translate into on-site activity. However, the pace of recovery will vary by sector, with infrastructure and commercial projects showing stronger prospects than residential construction.\n What does the UK construction pipeline indicate for 2026?\n\n  The value of construction orders has increased in recent quarters, indicating that future workload is strengthening. However, delays in planning approvals, affordability constraints, and regulatory requirements are slowing the conversion of pipeline projects into active construction.\n\n### Inflation and costs\n\n What is the forecast for UK construction inflation?",
      "score": 0.9998247,
      "raw_content": null
    },
    {
      "url": "https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/",
      "title": "Construction Industry Trends 2026 - ASD Limited",
      "content": "ASD\n\nThe UK's Leading Metal and Steel Supplier\n\n# Construction Industry Trends 2026\n\nConstruction trends 2026\n\nThe UK construction sector is preparing for a better year ahead. After a challenging 2025, industry analysts are expecting growth to return in 2026 and 2027. Private housebuilding is showing signs of recovery, and commercial office developments continue to gain momentum. That said, rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget – higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, will undoubtedly add pressure to already tight margins.",
      "score": 0.99968743,
      "raw_content": null
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html",
      "title": "Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis",
      "content": "price recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn concentrated in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallise, and the next cycle peak now more plausibly expected in 2028. Outside protected Western markets, Asian and global export prices are likely to remain subdued for longer, constrained by Chinese overcapacity. Detailed monthly price projections are available on our steel price forecasts page. [...] It should be noted at the outset that much of the flat products uplift has already been partially anticipated in the Q1 2026 rally, and that weak real demand — in construction and automotive in particular — remains the principal constraint on how aggressively mills can push prices higher. The European Commission also retains discretion to adjust quotas if prices rise to levels that seriously undermine downstream competitiveness.\n\nWith those caveats in mind, our central-case estimates for the incremental price uplift attributable to the new safeguard from H2 2026 (above May 2026 levels) are as follows: [...] by over 10% of EU consumption, and that \"steel buyers need to adjust their cost forecasts for 2026 notably upwards.\"( The combined effect of CBAM and the new safeguard — described by S&P Global as removing \"the safety valve of cheap third-country supply that previously capped European prices\" — is likely to make H2 2026 and 2027 meaningfully more supportive for European domestic steel prices than H1 2026.",
      "score": 0.9995308,
      "raw_content": null
    },
    {
      "url": "https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/",
      "title": "UK Steel Prices Set to Surge by 2027 | Tadweld",
      "content": "Based on current per-tonne benchmarks, projections suggest that the UK will overtake core EU markets in structural steel pricing by late 2026, overtaking Germany and France where prices typically range around €850 to €900 per tonne.  \n  \nThe research shows that UK hot-rolled structural steel sections are expected to rise from circa €780 per tonne to over €1,000 per tonne once a new 50% import tariff and carbon pricing are fully reflected, pushing it significantly above its nearest competitors on a like-for-like basis.   \nAside from ongoing global cost-pressures relating to energy and logistics costs (which caused Tata Steel UK to recently announce a £125/tonne increase), the new steel trade policy announced by the UK government in March 2026 is set to have the biggest influence. [...] could exempt some goods under contracts agreed before 14 March 2026 for a limited period between July and September 2026. Industry stakeholders have also raised concerns about a potential ‘pre-fabrication’ loophole, where lightly processed steel could fall outside the scope of the tariff regime. [...] Tadweld Engineering logo\n\nBrochureWho we areEmailGet in touchTel01937 832 865\n\n# UK Steel Prices Set to Surge by 2027\n\nApril 27, 2026\n\nBack to News\n\nNew Tadweld Research Highlights Impact of Tariffs and Carbon Costs\n\nNew research indicates that the United Kingdom is on course to become the most expensive market in Europe for structural steel, with prices expected to surpass key EU economies by late 2026.",
      "score": 0.9993228,
      "raw_content": null
    }
  ],
  "formatted": "Source: UK Construction Sector Report: April 2026 - Tokio Marine HCC\nURL: https://www.tmhcc.com/en/news-and-articles/thought-leadership/uk-construction-sector-report-april-2026\nScenario A:Prolonged Conflict (Extended Squeeze) If the conflict is protracted, the risks are more severe. Sustained energy price elevation would transmit into a second wave of building materials inflation, likely triggering a new insolvency cycle concentrated among fixed-price contractors in specialist trades. The interest rate path would remain inverted from market expectations at the start of the year, compressing housing market activity into 2027 and jeopardising the financial viability of a growing share of development schemes. The CPA’s revised 1.7% output forecast would likely prove optimistic. Credit risk management in construction lending and trade credit insurance would need to adjust to a higher and more persistent risk environment. [...] One of the sector’s few genuine improvements heading into 2026 was the normalisation of input cost inflation. Construction material prices had dipped into mild deflation in mid-2023 following the 2022 peak. Output price inflation, running at 2.7% y/y in September 2025 (the latest available ONS data13 had, for the first time in several years, exceeded input price inflation, providing some relief to margins that had been compressed for years. At the 2022 peak, input price inflation reached around 25% y/y while output price inflation peaked at 12% - a gap of 13 percentage points that eroded sector balance sheets over an extended period and from which many firms had not fully recovered before the current shock arrived. That supportive dynamic is now at serious risk of reversal [...] As set out in the Channel 1 transmission analysis above, this cost environment is a direct amplifier of credit risk for firms operating on fixed-price contracts. In absolute terms, the context is sobering. The ‘all work’ construction price index stoo\n\n---\n\nSource: UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis\nURL: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026\nWhat is the forecast for UK construction inflation? Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens. How will building costs change in 2026? [...] The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View examines the forces shaping the UK construction market, from shifts in sector performance and regional activity to emerging cost pressures and long-term infrastructure investment. ## UK construction industry trends, growth, and inflation insights The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View provides a data-driven perspective on the forces shaping the UK construction sector. The report combines market research and analysis, sector insights, and forward-looking forecasts to help industry leaders navigate an uncertain recovery. Construction growth and sector performance analysis—how residential, commercial, infrastructure, and public sectors are diverging in a two-speed recovery. [...] Is construction growth returning in the UK? Growth is expected to return gradually as project pipelines begin to translate into on-site activity. However, the pace of recovery will vary by sector, with infrastructure and commercial projects showing stronger prospects than residential construction. What does the UK construction pipeline indicate for 2026? The value of construction orders has increased in recent quarters, indicating that future workload is strengthening. However, delays in planning approvals, affordability constraints, and regulatory requirements are slowing the conversion of pipeline projects into active construction. ### Inflation a\n\n---\n\nSource: Construction Industry Trends 2026 - ASD Limited\nURL: https://asd.ltd/construction-trends-2026/\nASD The UK's Leading Metal and Steel Supplier # Construction Industry Trends 2026 Construction trends 2026 The UK construction sector is preparing for a better year ahead. After a challenging 2025, industry analysts are expecting growth to return in 2026 and 2027. Private housebuilding is showing signs of recovery, and commercial office developments continue to gain momentum. That said, rising employment costs from the Autumn Budget – higher minimum wage and National Insurance contributions, will undoubtedly add pressure to already tight margins.\n\n---\n\nSource: Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis\nURL: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html\nprice recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn concentrated in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallise, and the next cycle peak now more plausibly expected in 2028. Outside protected Western markets, Asian and global export prices are likely to remain subdued for longer, constrained by Chinese overcapacity. Detailed monthly price projections are available on our steel price forecasts page. [...] It should be noted at the outset that much of the flat products uplift has already been partially anticipated in the Q1 2026 rally, and that weak real demand — in construction and automotive in particular — remains the principal constraint on how aggressively mills can push prices higher. The European Commission also retains discretion to adjust quotas if prices rise to levels that seriously undermine downstream competitiveness. With those caveats in mind, our central-case estimates for the incremental price uplift attributable to the new safeguard from H2 2026 (above May 2026 levels) are as follows: [...] by over 10% of EU consumption, and that \"steel buyers need to adjust their cost forecasts for 2026 notably upwards.\"( The combined effect of CBAM and the new safeguard — described by S&P Global as removing \"the safety valve of cheap third-country supply that previously capped European prices\" — is likely to make H2 2026 and 2027 meaningfully more supportive for European domestic steel prices than H1 2026.\n\n---\n\nSource: UK Steel Prices Set to Surge by 2027 | Tadweld\nURL: https://tadweld.co.uk/uk-steel-prices-set-to-surge-by-2027/\nBased on current per-tonne benchmarks, projections suggest that the UK will overtake core EU markets in structural steel pricing by late 2026, overtaking Germany and France where prices typically range around €850 to €900 per tonne. The research shows that UK hot-rolled structural steel sections are expected to rise from circa €780 per tonne to over €1,000 per tonne once a new 50% import tariff and carbon pricing are fully reflected, pushing it significantly above its nearest competitors on a like-for-like basis. Aside from ongoing global cost-pressures relating to energy and logistics costs (which caused Tata Steel UK to recently announce a £125/tonne increase), the new steel trade policy announced by the UK government in March 2026 is set to have the biggest influence. [...] could exempt some goods under contracts agreed before 14 March 2026 for a limited period between July and September 2026. Industry stakeholders have also raised concerns about a potential ‘pre-fabrication’ loophole, where lightly processed steel could fall outside the scope of the tariff regime. [...] Tadweld Engineering logo BrochureWho we areEmailGet in touchTel01937 832 865 # UK Steel Prices Set to Surge by 2027 April 27, 2026 Back to News New Tadweld Research Highlights Impact of Tariffs and Carbon Costs New research indicates that the United Kingdom is on course to become the most expensive market in Europe for structural steel, with prices expected to surpass key EU economies by late 2026."
}