{ "query": "UK construction inflation and steel sector cost trends May 2026", "raw_results": [ { "url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026", "title": "UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis", "content": "Recent increases in metals prices, particularly copper and aluminium, are expected to affect specialist components such as electrical systems, cladding, and transmission infrastructure. While price hedging and supply chain dynamics may delay some impacts, sustained commodity inflation could increase costs for complex building and infrastructure projects.\n What could be the effect of the 2026 Iran War?\n\n The conflict in the Gulf Region is causing significant disruption to energy markets that will spill over into manufacturing supply chains. The Spring Market View forecast does not include a specific assessment of the impact of the War but includes a range of inflationary outcomes. [...] Is construction growth returning in the UK?\n\n Growth is expected to return gradually as project pipelines begin to translate into on-site activity. However, the pace of recovery will vary by sector, with infrastructure and commercial projects showing stronger prospects than residential construction.\n What does the UK construction pipeline indicate for 2026?\n\n The value of construction orders has increased in recent quarters, indicating that future workload is strengthening. However, delays in planning approvals, affordability constraints, and regulatory requirements are slowing the conversion of pipeline projects into active construction.\n\n### Inflation and costs\n\n What is the forecast for UK construction inflation? [...] What is the forecast for UK construction inflation?\n\n Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens.\n How will building costs change in 2026?", "score": 0.99988127, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html", "title": "Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis", "content": "It should be noted at the outset that much of the flat products uplift has already been partially anticipated in the Q1 2026 rally, and that weak real demand — in construction and automotive in particular — remains the principal constraint on how aggressively mills can push prices higher. The European Commission also retains discretion to adjust quotas if prices rise to levels that seriously undermine downstream competitiveness.\n\nWith those caveats in mind, our central-case estimates for the incremental price uplift attributable to the new safeguard from H2 2026 (above May 2026 levels) are as follows: [...] With the new safeguard now weeks away, market participants are actively pricing in its effects. European HRC prices (Northern Europe, ex-works) have already recovered by over €100/t since October 2025, reaching around €700–705/t in early May 2026, partly in anticipation of the July regime change. The question is how much further prices will move once the new quotas bite. [...] price recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn concentrated in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallise, and the next cycle peak now more plausibly expected in 2028. Outside protected Western markets, Asian and global export prices are likely to remain subdued for longer, constrained by Chinese overcapacity. Detailed monthly price projections are available on our steel price forecasts page.", "score": 0.9997131, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/", "title": "BCIS construction industry forecast", "content": "### BCIS construction industry forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031\n\nBuilding costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.\n\nTotal new work output is forecast to grow by 12% between 2026 and 2031.\n\nDr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Conditions in the UK construction sector at the start of 2026 were mixed, with some signs of improving sentiment before geopolitical developments unsettled energy markets and clouded the outlook. [...] On the input costs side, labour remains the primary driver of project costs. Skills shortages continue to prevail, with the TPI panel reporting that while labour availability is generally sufficient, there are particular issues in specialist trades, including sprinkler installation and facade works.\n\nTotal new work output increased by 1.8% in 2025. BCIS expects subdued growth in new work output through 2026 as residential and commercial sectors continue to struggle.\n\nDr Crosthwaite said:‘The sector entered 2026 with some cautious optimism, but that has been tempered by recent geopolitical developments. Higher energy prices risk sustaining inflationary pressures and delaying any easing in monetary policy, which is critical for interest-sensitive sectors like housing.’ [...] # BCIS building forecast\n\nPublished: 26/03/2026\n\nBCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends.\n\nThe quarterly BCIS building briefing reflects our view of housing, infrastructure, public non-housing, private industrial and private commercial new work output against the backdrop of materials and labour costs, and the wider economic background and market conditions.\n\nThis forecast is based on information available up to 10 March 2026. The full briefings are available to subscribers of BCIS CapX, the leading service for construction costing activities.\n\n### BCIS construction industry forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031", "score": 0.9990746, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-builders-hit-by-biggest-surge-cost-inflation-nearly-four-years-2026-05-07/", "title": "UK builders hit by biggest surge in cost inflation in nearly four years", "content": "\"A rapid acceleration of input cost ​inflation was seen across the UK construction sector in April. Aside from the post-pandemic surge in input prices from early-2021 to mid-2022, the latest rise in purchasing costs was the steepest in three decades of data collection,\" ​said Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.\n\nAdvertisement · Scroll to continue\n\nThe Bank of England is closely ​monitoring measures of input prices and prices charged by companies as it tries to gauge whether the inflation ‌impact from ⁠the war will last long enough to require increases in borrowing costs.\n\nBusinesses reported the most widespread delays in shipping times since December 2022, S&P said, as vessels were largely unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. [...] # UK builders hit by biggest surge in cost inflation in nearly four years | Reuters\n\nSkip to main content\n\nReport AdImage 1\n\nExclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals Learn more about Refinitiv\n\n - British builders saw one of the biggest month-on-month jumps in cost inflation on record in April, according to a survey on Thursday that also showed the Iran war increased ​delivery delays and other supply chain difficulties.\n\nThe S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers' ‌Index's measure of input cost inflation leapt to 81.4, its highest since June 2022. The jump from 70.5 in March was the second-biggest rise since 1997 when the data series began, only just shy of the 11-point ​jump from February to March. [...] The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here.\n\nAdvertisement · Scroll to continue\n\nReport AdImage 3\n\nThe headline construction PMI, which measures overall activity, fell to ​39.7 from 45.6, its weakest since November and below all economists' expectations ⁠in a Reuters poll.\n\nS&P said around 69% of survey respondents reported a rise in their ​input costs in April, up from 48% in the month before.", "score": 0.9989837, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-march-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-march-2026", "title": "Construction building materials: commentary March 2026 - GOV.UK", "content": "These statistics support analysis of the construction materials market and business planning. They are regularly reported in the construction press and are used for a variety of purposes, including policy development, evaluation and monitoring market trends. For further details see the Uses of these statistics section of this publication.\n\n## 3. Summary of results\n\n### 3.1 Material price indices\n\n#### Figure 2: construction material annual price inflation, UK\n\nSource: monthly statistics of building materials and components, table 1\n\nDownload data for figure 2: construction material annual price inflation, UK\n\n#### Table 1: construction material price indices, year-on-year and month-on-month percentage change [...] | Construction materials | (% change) |\n --- |\n| Imported sawn or planed wood | 7.6 |\n| Gravel, sand, clays and kaolin - incl aggregate levy | 7.3 |\n| Plastic doors and windows | 5.6 |\n| Precast concrete: blocks, bricks, tiles and flagstones | -2.3 |\n| Imported plywood | -6.7 |\n| Concrete reinforcing bars (steel) | -7.2 |\n\nDownload data for table 2: construction materials experiencing the greatest price increases and decreases in the 12 months to February 2026, UK\n\nThe aggregated construction material price indices hide larger price movements for some specific products and materials, table 2 shows the 3 largest increases and the 3 largest decreases.\n\nThe price data used for this publication predates the current hostilities within the Middle East, which commenced on 28 February 2026. [...] decreased by 17.4% in February 2026 compared with February 2025\n decreased by 9.6% in January 2026 compared with January 2025\n increased by 2.7% in February 2026 compared with January 2026\n decreased by 4.8% in January 2026 compared with December 2025\n declined during the recession of 2008 to 2009, only coming back to growth in 2013\n grew from 2013 until 2020, interrupted only by the sharp decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic\n declined in 2022 and 2023\n\n### 3.7 Imports and exports of construction materials\n\n#### Figure 8: quarterly exports and imports of construction materials, UK\n\nUnits: nominal value in Pounds Sterling (GBP)\n\nSource: monthly statistics of building materials and components, table 13\n\nDownload figure 8: quarterly exports and imports of construction materials, UK", "score": 0.9989183, "raw_content": null } ], "formatted": "Source: UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis\nURL: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026\nRecent increases in metals prices, particularly copper and aluminium, are expected to affect specialist components such as electrical systems, cladding, and transmission infrastructure. While price hedging and supply chain dynamics may delay some impacts, sustained commodity inflation could increase costs for complex building and infrastructure projects. What could be the effect of the 2026 Iran War? The conflict in the Gulf Region is causing significant disruption to energy markets that will spill over into manufacturing supply chains. The Spring Market View forecast does not include a specific assessment of the impact of the War but includes a range of inflationary outcomes. [...] Is construction growth returning in the UK? Growth is expected to return gradually as project pipelines begin to translate into on-site activity. However, the pace of recovery will vary by sector, with infrastructure and commercial projects showing stronger prospects than residential construction. What does the UK construction pipeline indicate for 2026? The value of construction orders has increased in recent quarters, indicating that future workload is strengthening. However, delays in planning approvals, affordability constraints, and regulatory requirements are slowing the conversion of pipeline projects into active construction. ### Inflation and costs What is the forecast for UK construction inflation? [...] What is the forecast for UK construction inflation? Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens. How will bui\n\n---\n\nSource: Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis\nURL: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html\nIt should be noted at the outset that much of the flat products uplift has already been partially anticipated in the Q1 2026 rally, and that weak real demand — in construction and automotive in particular — remains the principal constraint on how aggressively mills can push prices higher. The European Commission also retains discretion to adjust quotas if prices rise to levels that seriously undermine downstream competitiveness. With those caveats in mind, our central-case estimates for the incremental price uplift attributable to the new safeguard from H2 2026 (above May 2026 levels) are as follows: [...] With the new safeguard now weeks away, market participants are actively pricing in its effects. European HRC prices (Northern Europe, ex-works) have already recovered by over €100/t since October 2025, reaching around €700–705/t in early May 2026, partly in anticipation of the July regime change. The question is how much further prices will move once the new quotas bite. [...] price recovery in 2026, with a more substantive upturn concentrated in 2027 as regulatory costs crystallise, and the next cycle peak now more plausibly expected in 2028. Outside protected Western markets, Asian and global export prices are likely to remain subdued for longer, constrained by Chinese overcapacity. Detailed monthly price projections are available on our steel price forecasts page.\n\n---\n\nSource: BCIS construction industry forecast\nURL: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/\n### BCIS construction industry forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031 Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data. Total new work output is forecast to grow by 12% between 2026 and 2031. Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Conditions in the UK construction sector at the start of 2026 were mixed, with some signs of improving sentiment before geopolitical developments unsettled energy markets and clouded the outlook. [...] On the input costs side, labour remains the primary driver of project costs. Skills shortages continue to prevail, with the TPI panel reporting that while labour availability is generally sufficient, there are particular issues in specialist trades, including sprinkler installation and facade works. Total new work output increased by 1.8% in 2025. BCIS expects subdued growth in new work output through 2026 as residential and commercial sectors continue to struggle. Dr Crosthwaite said:‘The sector entered 2026 with some cautious optimism, but that has been tempered by recent geopolitical developments. Higher energy prices risk sustaining inflationary pressures and delaying any easing in monetary policy, which is critical for interest-sensitive sectors like housing.’ [...] # BCIS building forecast Published: 26/03/2026 BCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends. The quarterly BCIS building briefing reflects our view of housing, infrastructure, public non-housing, private industrial and private commercial new work output against the backdrop of materials and labour costs, and the wid\n\n---\n\nSource: UK builders hit by biggest surge in cost inflation in nearly four years\nURL: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-builders-hit-by-biggest-surge-cost-inflation-nearly-four-years-2026-05-07/\n\"A rapid acceleration of input cost ​inflation was seen across the UK construction sector in April. Aside from the post-pandemic surge in input prices from early-2021 to mid-2022, the latest rise in purchasing costs was the steepest in three decades of data collection,\" ​said Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Advertisement · Scroll to continue The Bank of England is closely ​monitoring measures of input prices and prices charged by companies as it tries to gauge whether the inflation ‌impact from ⁠the war will last long enough to require increases in borrowing costs. Businesses reported the most widespread delays in shipping times since December 2022, S&P said, as vessels were largely unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. [...] # UK builders hit by biggest surge in cost inflation in nearly four years | Reuters Skip to main content Report AdImage 1 Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals Learn more about Refinitiv - British builders saw one of the biggest month-on-month jumps in cost inflation on record in April, according to a survey on Thursday that also showed the Iran war increased ​delivery delays and other supply chain difficulties. The S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers' ‌Index's measure of input cost inflation leapt to 81.4, its highest since June 2022. The jump from 70.5 in March was the second-biggest rise since 1997 when the data series began, only just shy of the 11-point ​jump from February to March. [...] The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran war. Sign up here. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report AdImage 3 The headline construction PMI, which measures overall activity, fell to ​39.7 from 45.6, its weak\n\n---\n\nSource: Construction building materials: commentary March 2026 - GOV.UK\nURL: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/building-materials-and-components-statistics-march-2026/construction-building-materials-commentary-march-2026\nThese statistics support analysis of the construction materials market and business planning. They are regularly reported in the construction press and are used for a variety of purposes, including policy development, evaluation and monitoring market trends. For further details see the Uses of these statistics section of this publication. ## 3. Summary of results ### 3.1 Material price indices #### Figure 2: construction material annual price inflation, UK Source: monthly statistics of building materials and components, table 1 Download data for figure 2: construction material annual price inflation, UK #### Table 1: construction material price indices, year-on-year and month-on-month percentage change [...] | Construction materials | (% change) | --- | | Imported sawn or planed wood | 7.6 | | Gravel, sand, clays and kaolin - incl aggregate levy | 7.3 | | Plastic doors and windows | 5.6 | | Precast concrete: blocks, bricks, tiles and flagstones | -2.3 | | Imported plywood | -6.7 | | Concrete reinforcing bars (steel) | -7.2 | Download data for table 2: construction materials experiencing the greatest price increases and decreases in the 12 months to February 2026, UK The aggregated construction material price indices hide larger price movements for some specific products and materials, table 2 shows the 3 largest increases and the 3 largest decreases. The price data used for this publication predates the current hostilities within the Middle East, which commenced on 28 February 2026. [...] decreased by 17.4% in February 2026 compared with February 2025 decreased by 9.6% in January 2026 compared with January 2025 increased by 2.7% in February 2026 compared with January 2026 decreased by 4.8% in January 2026 compared with December 2025 declined during the recession of 2008" }