{ "query": "UK construction market trends May 2026 inflation labor costs steel industry", "raw_results": [ { "url": "https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026", "title": "UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis", "content": "The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View examines the forces shaping the UK construction market, from shifts in sector performance and regional activity to emerging cost pressures and long-term infrastructure investment.\n\n## UK construction industry trends, growth, and inflation insights\n\nThe Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View provides a data-driven perspective on the forces shaping the UK construction sector. The report combines market research and analysis, sector insights, and forward-looking forecasts to help industry leaders navigate an uncertain recovery.\n\nConstruction growth and sector performance analysis—how residential, commercial, infrastructure, and public sectors are diverging in a two-speed recovery. [...] What is the forecast for UK construction inflation?\n\n Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens.\n How will building costs change in 2026? [...] ## What the latest UK construction forecast means for 2026\n\nThe UK construction sector may be approaching the bottom of the current cycle, but a sustained recovery remains uncertain. While the pipeline of future work is growing, affordability pressures, regulatory hurdles, and delayed investment decisions continue to slow project delivery.\n\nFor clients and contractors, this creates a narrow window where labour availability and competitive tender conditions may work in their favour—before cost pressures and market demand begin to rise again.\n\nThe Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market Viewexplores what these trends mean for construction growth, costs, and sector performance in the year ahead.\n\n### Get the full UK Market View – Spring 2026 UK Construction Market View Review our report now!", "score": 0.7106489, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html", "title": "What is the economic outlook for 2026? | Journals - MODUS | RICS", "content": "The chancellor has vowed to avoid inflationary tax hikes, suggesting the package will prioritise other tax increases over VAT or duties, which would be more problematic for the sector.\n\n## Concluding remarks\n\nThe UK construction sector approaches 2026 in a delicate position.\n\nThe key variable remains timing. The sector's interest-rate sensitivity means it will be among the first to benefit from cheaper borrowing, potentially reviving stalled projects and improving development viability.\n\nActivity has softened, confidence is muted and structural challenges around planning and skills persist. Yet the macroeconomic environment is shifting more favourably than seemed possible just weeks ago. [...] Bailey described inflation risks as 'less pressing' and expressed preference to 'wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed', which represents a pivot that markets have interpreted as a precursor to further easing.\n\nThe fact that since those comments were made unemployment has risen to 5%, the highest since the pandemic, only reinforces the more dovish stance.\n\nAs a result, Oxford Economics now expects the base rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026.\n\nThis marks a significant departure from earlier autumn expectations. Inflation, which peaked at 3.8% in the latest reported data, is now forecast to ease more decisively. [...] CONSTRUCTION JOURNAL\n\n# What is the economic outlook for 2026?\n\nUK economic performance is currently on a knife edge as the chancellor prepares the Autumn Budget\n\n Tarrant Parsons\n\n19 November 2025\n\nEconomics\n\nProjects and people\n\nPublic sector\n\nQuantity surveying and construction\n\nAerial view of Westminster palace\n\nAs we approach the close of 2025, the UK construction sector is navigating a complex landscape marked by significant headwinds.\n\nWith GDP projected to grow by around 1.5% this year, placing the UK among the faster-growing G7 economies, construction output has also increased by approximately 1.5% in 2025 so far, making a positive contribution to overall economic expansion.", "score": 0.61168414, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/", "title": "BCIS construction industry forecast", "content": "### BCIS construction industry forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031\n\nBuilding costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data.\n\nTotal new work output is forecast to grow by 12% between 2026 and 2031.\n\nDr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Conditions in the UK construction sector at the start of 2026 were mixed, with some signs of improving sentiment before geopolitical developments unsettled energy markets and clouded the outlook. [...] On the input costs side, labour remains the primary driver of project costs. Skills shortages continue to prevail, with the TPI panel reporting that while labour availability is generally sufficient, there are particular issues in specialist trades, including sprinkler installation and facade works.\n\nTotal new work output increased by 1.8% in 2025. BCIS expects subdued growth in new work output through 2026 as residential and commercial sectors continue to struggle.\n\nDr Crosthwaite said:‘The sector entered 2026 with some cautious optimism, but that has been tempered by recent geopolitical developments. Higher energy prices risk sustaining inflationary pressures and delaying any easing in monetary policy, which is critical for interest-sensitive sectors like housing.’", "score": 0.57064295, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html", "title": "Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis", "content": "In the United States, Section 232 tariffs — raised to 50% in June 2025 — continue to insulate the domestic market significantly from world price levels, with US HRC prices well above Asian benchmarks. This divergence is structural for as long as the tariffs remain in place. In the UK, the current steel safeguard also expires on 30 June 2026, to be replaced by a new trade defence mechanism from 1 July 2026 with substantially lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff, mirroring the EU approach.( The UK's own CBAM is not expected until 2027, leaving a brief window of reduced regulatory protection in H1 2026. Over time, CBAM and tightened safeguards are expected to accelerate the shift toward EAF-based and lower-carbon steelmaking, benefiting scrap-intensive producers globally. [...] Image 17: Steel plant CO2 emissions calculator\n\nImage 18: Steel industry think tank research and insights hub - independent analysis cited by OECD and UK Parliament\n\nImage 19: Steel industry conferences and exhibitions calendar 2026-2027\n\nImage 20: Custom-made world maps showing steel plant locations and industry geography\n\nImage 21: Professional expert witness services for steel industry litigation and legal proceedings\n\nImage 22: Steel Industry Trends - Analysis of global consumption, technology and pricing dynamics\n\nImage 23: Steel company news pages covering ArcelorMittal, Tata Steel, JSW, ThyssenKrupp and other major producers\n\nImage 24: The European Green Steel Industry Summit [...] | Product | Current Price (May 2026) | Estimated Uplift (Central Case, H2 2026) | Key Driver |\n --- --- |\n| HRC (N. Europe, ex-works) | ~€700/t | +€50–80/t | 4.3 Mt import reduction; quota ~25% of recent flat import volumes |\n| CRC / metallic coated | ~€830–850/t | +€50–80/t | Tracks HRC; CBAM adds further cost pressure on non-EU origins |\n| Rebar (Germany, delivered) | ~€600/t | +€20–40/t | Import penetration already low in W. Europe; Turkey (key supplier) most exposed |\n| Wire rod / light sections | ~€650–700/t | +€20–60/t | Wider range reflects variable import exposure by country and grade |", "score": 0.46075046, "raw_content": null }, { "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/steel-strategy/the-uk-steel-strategy-web-version", "title": "The UK steel strategy (web version) - GOV.UK", "content": "The UK government is currently applying:\n\nUnder WTO rules, safeguard measures may only be applied for a maximum of 8 years, which means the steel safeguard will expire at the end of June 2026. As we look forward, the UK government will protect the UK steel industry to ensure that it can support national security.\n\n​The UK has long benefitted from an open trading system, and we continue to be a strong advocate for free and fair trade. Overcapacity has generated a precarious situation for the UK steel industry, and this situation continues to worsen. [...] ### The UK business environment for UK-produced steel\n\nTo support our existing steel sites and encourage further private investment, the UK and devolved governments have taken steps to remove barriers to investment and create a more supportive business environment in which steel companies:\n\nIn addition, we are providing up to £2.5 billion to support, rebuild and modernise the UK steel industry. These measures will in many cases also benefit our wider steel sector, beyond our principal steel producers.\n\n#### Defending against global overcapacity in steel\n\nWe are taking robust action to protect essential domestic production to secure our national security with new steel trade measures coming into force on 1 July 2026, immediately after the UK’s steel safeguard measure ends. [...] #### Table 3: Forecasted UK demand for steel, 2025 to 2050, million tonnes\n\n| Steel demand | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |\n --- --- --- \n| Rebar | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 |\n| Sections | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |\n| Wire Rods | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |\n| Other Long Steel | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |\n| Plates | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |\n| Hot / Cold Rolled Coil | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 |\n| Hot Dipped Galvanised | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |\n| Electrical Steel | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |\n| Other Flat Steel | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |\n| Other Steel | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |\n| Total | 9.1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 14.0 |", "score": 0.35985944, "raw_content": null } ], "formatted": "Source: UK Construction Market Outlook Spring 2026 - Arcadis\nURL: https://www.arcadis.com/en-gb/insights/perspectives/europe/united-kingdom/uk-construction-market-view-spring-2026\nThe Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View examines the forces shaping the UK construction market, from shifts in sector performance and regional activity to emerging cost pressures and long-term infrastructure investment. ## UK construction industry trends, growth, and inflation insights The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market View provides a data-driven perspective on the forces shaping the UK construction sector. The report combines market research and analysis, sector insights, and forward-looking forecasts to help industry leaders navigate an uncertain recovery. Construction growth and sector performance analysis—how residential, commercial, infrastructure, and public sectors are diverging in a two-speed recovery. [...] What is the forecast for UK construction inflation? Construction cost inflation is expected to remain moderate in the near term due to soft demand and competitive pressure across supply chains. However, rising commodity and energy prices, labour shortages, and increased infrastructure investment could create renewed inflationary pressure as market activity strengthens. How will building costs change in 2026? [...] ## What the latest UK construction forecast means for 2026 The UK construction sector may be approaching the bottom of the current cycle, but a sustained recovery remains uncertain. While the pipeline of future work is growing, affordability pressures, regulatory hurdles, and delayed investment decisions continue to slow project delivery. For clients and contractors, this creates a narrow window where labour availability and competitive tender conditions may work in their favour—before cost pressures and market demand begin to rise again. The Spring 2026 Arcadis UK Market Viewexplores what these trends mean for construction growth, costs, and sector\n\n---\n\nSource: What is the economic outlook for 2026? | Journals - MODUS | RICS\nURL: https://ww3.rics.org/uk/en/journals/construction-journal/budget-preview.html\nThe chancellor has vowed to avoid inflationary tax hikes, suggesting the package will prioritise other tax increases over VAT or duties, which would be more problematic for the sector. ## Concluding remarks The UK construction sector approaches 2026 in a delicate position. The key variable remains timing. The sector's interest-rate sensitivity means it will be among the first to benefit from cheaper borrowing, potentially reviving stalled projects and improving development viability. Activity has softened, confidence is muted and structural challenges around planning and skills persist. Yet the macroeconomic environment is shifting more favourably than seemed possible just weeks ago. [...] Bailey described inflation risks as 'less pressing' and expressed preference to 'wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed', which represents a pivot that markets have interpreted as a precursor to further easing. The fact that since those comments were made unemployment has risen to 5%, the highest since the pandemic, only reinforces the more dovish stance. As a result, Oxford Economics now expects the base rate to reach 3.25% by the end of 2026. This marks a significant departure from earlier autumn expectations. Inflation, which peaked at 3.8% in the latest reported data, is now forecast to ease more decisively. [...] CONSTRUCTION JOURNAL # What is the economic outlook for 2026? UK economic performance is currently on a knife edge as the chancellor prepares the Autumn Budget Tarrant Parsons 19 November 2025 Economics Projects and people Public sector Quantity surveying and construction Aerial view of Westminster palace As we approach the close of 2025, the UK construction sector is navigating a complex landscape marked by significant headwinds. With GDP projected \n\n---\n\nSource: BCIS construction industry forecast\nURL: https://www.bcis.co.uk/news/bcis-construction-industry-forecast/\n### BCIS construction industry forecast – 1Q2026 to 1Q2031 Building costs are forecast to increase by 14% over the next five years, while tender prices are expected to rise by 15% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest construction forecast data. Total new work output is forecast to grow by 12% between 2026 and 2031. Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Conditions in the UK construction sector at the start of 2026 were mixed, with some signs of improving sentiment before geopolitical developments unsettled energy markets and clouded the outlook. [...] On the input costs side, labour remains the primary driver of project costs. Skills shortages continue to prevail, with the TPI panel reporting that while labour availability is generally sufficient, there are particular issues in specialist trades, including sprinkler installation and facade works. Total new work output increased by 1.8% in 2025. BCIS expects subdued growth in new work output through 2026 as residential and commercial sectors continue to struggle. Dr Crosthwaite said:‘The sector entered 2026 with some cautious optimism, but that has been tempered by recent geopolitical developments. Higher energy prices risk sustaining inflationary pressures and delaying any easing in monetary policy, which is critical for interest-sensitive sectors like housing.’\n\n---\n\nSource: Steel Market Forecast 2026-2027 | Global Price Outlook & Analysis\nURL: https://www.steelonthenet.com/resources/market-data/market-outlook.html\nIn the United States, Section 232 tariffs — raised to 50% in June 2025 — continue to insulate the domestic market significantly from world price levels, with US HRC prices well above Asian benchmarks. This divergence is structural for as long as the tariffs remain in place. In the UK, the current steel safeguard also expires on 30 June 2026, to be replaced by a new trade defence mechanism from 1 July 2026 with substantially lower import quotas and a 50% out-of-quota tariff, mirroring the EU approach.( The UK's own CBAM is not expected until 2027, leaving a brief window of reduced regulatory protection in H1 2026. Over time, CBAM and tightened safeguards are expected to accelerate the shift toward EAF-based and lower-carbon steelmaking, benefiting scrap-intensive producers globally. [...] Image 17: Steel plant CO2 emissions calculator Image 18: Steel industry think tank research and insights hub - independent analysis cited by OECD and UK Parliament Image 19: Steel industry conferences and exhibitions calendar 2026-2027 Image 20: Custom-made world maps showing steel plant locations and industry geography Image 21: Professional expert witness services for steel industry litigation and legal proceedings Image 22: Steel Industry Trends - Analysis of global consumption, technology and pricing dynamics Image 23: Steel company news pages covering ArcelorMittal, Tata Steel, JSW, ThyssenKrupp and other major producers Image 24: The European Green Steel Industry Summit [...] | Product | Current Price (May 2026) | Estimated Uplift (Central Case, H2 2026) | Key Driver | --- --- | | HRC (N. Europe, ex-works) | ~€700/t | +€50–80/t | 4.3 Mt import reduction; quota ~25% of recent flat import volumes | | CRC / metallic coated | ~€830–850/t | +€50–80/t | Tracks HRC; CBAM adds further cos\n\n---\n\nSource: The UK steel strategy (web version) - GOV.UK\nURL: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/steel-strategy/the-uk-steel-strategy-web-version\nThe UK government is currently applying: Under WTO rules, safeguard measures may only be applied for a maximum of 8 years, which means the steel safeguard will expire at the end of June 2026. As we look forward, the UK government will protect the UK steel industry to ensure that it can support national security. ​The UK has long benefitted from an open trading system, and we continue to be a strong advocate for free and fair trade. Overcapacity has generated a precarious situation for the UK steel industry, and this situation continues to worsen. [...] ### The UK business environment for UK-produced steel To support our existing steel sites and encourage further private investment, the UK and devolved governments have taken steps to remove barriers to investment and create a more supportive business environment in which steel companies: In addition, we are providing up to £2.5 billion to support, rebuild and modernise the UK steel industry. These measures will in many cases also benefit our wider steel sector, beyond our principal steel producers. #### Defending against global overcapacity in steel We are taking robust action to protect essential domestic production to secure our national security with new steel trade measures coming into force on 1 July 2026, immediately after the UK’s steel safeguard measure ends. [...] #### Table 3: Forecasted UK demand for steel, 2025 to 2050, million tonnes | Steel demand | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | --- --- --- | Rebar | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | | Sections | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | | Wire Rods | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | | Other Long Steel | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | | Plates | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | | Hot / Cold Rolled Coil | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 " }